Public Event Detail
Morgan Stanley sees dollar risks skewed to downside as energy shock sensitivity fades
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Event summary
Morgan Stanley believes the dollar's risks are increasingly tilted to the downside as foreign exchange markets become less sensitive to energy supply disruption news from geopolitical events. While investors are shifting focus to longer-term themes, leading to expectations of the dollar trading at a deeper discount to rate differentials, the bank warns of a potential upside risk from refined product shortages. Such shortages could weaken economic data and trigger risk aversion, traditionally supporting dollar demand, making a fully negative dollar call premature for now.